Key data in Australia this week will be led by wage growth
figures for the June quarter, the RBA’s board minutes, and the
July employment report.
Global stocks were steady on Friday night, although markets
remain on edge amid escalating tension between the US and North
The S&P500 eked out a small gain but finished down 1.4% for
the week, its worst weekly performance since March.
Friday’s session also rounded out a tough week for Asian markets.
South Korea’s KOSPI index fell by 1.7%,
leading regional stocks lower as the geo-political concerns
weighed on sentiment.
US stocks opened higher following another soft inflation measure
as annual growth just missed forecasts with a print of 1.7%.
According to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, the probability that
the US Federal Reserve will hike rates again by the end of this
year has now dipped to 36.8%.
Following another low inflation reading and in keeping with the
risk-off theme in global bond markets, the yield on benchmark
10-year US treasuries closed below 2.2% for the first time since
On currency markets, traditional safe-havens the Japanese yen and
Swiss franc continued to find buyers on Friday.
The Aussie dollar moved slightly higher against the greenback,
closing the week at 0.7895.
Key data points start on Tuesday with the release of the RBA’s
minutes from its interest rate announcement on August 1.
Although they will likely echo the RBA’s recent cautiously
optimistic outlook, the minutes from last July’s meeting were
more bullish than expected and
that helped fuel the Aussie dollar’s recent push above US80
Wednesday’s wage data for the June quarter will also get plenty
Australia’s slow rate of wage growth has been
well-documented, given its connection to inflation and by
extension the outlook for interest rates.
The market’s forecast is for modest annual wage growth of 1.9%,
in line with the March quarter but still below June headline
inflation growth of 2.1%.
Business Insider’s David Scutt reported last week that some
indicators point to a pickup in wage growth in the second half of
Then on Thursday there’s the monthly employment figures, with
market expectations for another 20,000 jobs to be added in July
after a trend of strong employment growth through the middle part
of this year.
Here’s the schedule of Australian data releases this week (via
On Monday, Japan has Q2 GDP with annual growth forecast at 2.5%.
Also tomorrow there’s industrial production and retail sales
figures out of China.
Tuesday evening after Asian markets close, the UK reports annual
inflation data, followed on Wednesday by average weekly earnings
growth and the quarterly unemployment rate.
Also on Wednesday (4am Thursday morning AEST) the US Federal
Reserve releases the minutes from its July meeting.
On Thursday night AEST the Eurozone has CPI data for July, with
annual headline inflation forecast to grow at 1.3%. There’s also
the minutes from the ECB’s latest policy meeting.
On Friday night after Asian markets close, Canada has annual
inflation growth for July. Although Canada’s economy has been
strengthening, annual inflation growth is forecast at just 1%.
Full international calendar below (via ANZ):
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